Electoral Violence in Myanmar

Introduction

Emerging from the Cold War at the end of the 1980s, a variety of Asian countries were catapulted from communism and the number of electoral democratic countries was increasing rapidly but they were not achieving border democratic reform such as participating the elections without restraint, improving representation, utilizing the elections as a tool to change the country political management strategy.[1] Among these problems, a significant problem is the use of electoral violence to influence the outcome of the elections. Then, evidences show that electoral violence has negative impacts on the electoral participation and reduce the equality and freedom of elections. In fact, Election is the foundation of democratic governance. It is a formal decision-making process for selecting representatives who will perform the activities of the elector’s desire and will be held accountable for their performance in office. In most of countries, Elections are held periodically to solve the problem of succession and peaceful transfer of power. In theory, the employment of elections also allows select leaders ought to provide a nonviolent alternative in conflicted societies to the use of force to adjudicate between rival claims to rule, and it ought to be a mechanism that allows citizens greater say over how they are governed. Yet in practice, these expectations often fail to conform to reality. Elections, especially the country like Myanmar where democracy is still fragile and not yet fully consolidated, are accompanied with significant levels of electoral violence. In that case, the legitimacy of the government comes into the questions whether the people really accept the public officials as their true representative or it involves coercions. So, it defies the very conception of democracy as built on nonviolent principles and people’s rules.

Myanmar is going to hold its third general elections on 8 November this year under the 2008 constitution written by the military. The first general elections held in this framework was applauded as a helpful contribution to the cause of democracy in Myanmar but the election itself was deeply flawed. There were many irregularities that are considered as electoral violence such as imposing restriction on monitoring framework and the free flow of information by the regime, and rejected opposition candidates by the Union Election Commission, reviewed all campaign speeches, and signi­ficantly restricted campaigning. Yet, the regime had a more free and fair general election in 2015 as observers accepted that the process was as credible and the results reflected the will of the people although there were irregularities and total exclusions of particular minorities groups. However, this year’s general election poses new challenges for a free and fair election with increasing armed conflict in parts of the country and due to global pandemic Covid-19.

            This paper’ main objective is to explore major patterns of electoral violence in Myanmar and find the supportive ways to prevent the electoral violence in coming 2020 Myanmar election.

Literature on Electoral Violence

In general, WHO define the definition of violent as “The intentional use of physical force or power, threatened or actual, against oneself, another person, or against a group or community, that either results in or has a high likelihood of resulting in injury, death, psychological harm, maldevelopment or deprivation ” Electoral violence is  “any random or organized act or threat to intimidate, physically harm, blackmail, or abuse an electoral stakeholder in seeking to determine, delay, or to otherwise influence the electoral process.[2]

However, the researchers in political science define electoral violence it in two strands that affect electoral process and election result such as a sub-type of political violence and electoral fraud that concentrates around elections. Electoral violence is mainly levied by political actors to purposefully influence the process and outcome of elections. Kristine, 2010, argued that electoral violence is seen as a subset of political violence in a larger political conflict where the regime is communally divided ethno-cultural divisions based on language, culture, territory, and religion. In this kind of society, the political parties politicized the underlying historical and communal conflicts to seek to capitalize their popularity that eventually led to communal violence. When community groups organized along communal identities (often ethnicity or religion) for electoral benefits, electoral violence can also unfold in the context of violent communal conflict too. Secondly, the fraudulent elections that include activities ballot rigging, vote buying, disruptions of the registration process, harassment of the opposition and voter coercion used by political elites to manipulate the outcome. This type of violence is different from the earlier one because it doesn’t induce fear of physical injury and actual loss of life that results psychological effects on individuals and society. The electoral fraud is relatively well recorded by observers and monitors, who primarily work around election time, as it mainly occurs during election days. Whereas the first type of violence can happen even prior and after the election process.  The irregularities of Myanmar 2010 general election were well recorded by observers amid tight restrictions. It was more of electoral fraud that occurred during the electoral polls such as the flaws of electoral frame and Union Election Commission biased in favor of a military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), other suspicious acts and mobilization of the electorate during the campaign period and polling time.

However, the electoral violence in the form of political violence or communal violence is always overlooked because it is part of the general conflict dynamics. Scholars adhere to the notion that the phenomenon can be distinguished from other types of violence by its timing and motives. If any group or party’s expectation doesn’t meet the results, communal violence can be perpetrated to overthrow or, either to alter or influence the election outcome.  The timing of these kinds of electoral violence form pre-election phase to post-election period which is marked by a number of events and shifts focus from day-to-day politics to elections. This kind of violence is heightened when a political system which lacks developed and moderate parties, and where the political parties advocate extremist views, may have a higher propensity for resorting to violence as a way of channeling political dissent and to influence political processes (K Hoglund, 2010).

As an example, National League for Democracy (NLD) was defeated in 2015 elections in Meiktila constituency in Mandalay Region after the communal violence between Buddhists and Muslims in 2013. The region was the heartland of ethnic Bamar and NLD’s stronghold where the party had landslide victory 1990 and in 2012 by-election. When anti-Muslim violence swept through the region in spring 2013, there had been increasing campaign of Buddhist nationalism that was endorsed by radical Ma Ba Tha monks. The hardliner monks also conspired theories that NLD is controlled by foreign Muslim organizations and is becoming the symbol of Islam. So, If NLD wins upcoming elections, Muslim will overtake the country within the near future and Buddhism will die out. This drama had affected voter’s behavior, weakening NLD popularity. Thus, NLD lost all four seats related to Meikhtilar   to Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), a party allegedly affiliated with hardliners.

The weakness of electoral commission is identified in several studies as a cause of election violence. The existing evidence strongly suggests that strengthening electoral commission can reduce the chances of electoral violence. In the next section, the administration of Union Election Commission (UEC) will be analyzed as it is a constitutional body entrusted with the responsibility of administering the elections in Myanmar.

Union Election Commission (UEC)

After years of rule, the Tatmadaw government adopted a seven-step road map for Myanmar democracy transformation under 2008 Constitution. As part of the process, a new Union Election Commission was established which must have at least five members who are age fifty or older, with the responsibility to organize the general elections and the registration of political parties and oversee their activities. The election commission enjoys broad and largely unchecked powers in the implementation of both these competencies. For conducts of elections, the UEC designate the constituencies for next term, and adopts rules and regulations, appoints election sub-commissions at state/ region, district and township levels at least 60 days in advance prior to the expiry of the term of the Hluttaw. It takes the duties of preparing voter lists, certifying results, supervising election campaign expenses by political parties and deciding on election-related complaints and appeals too. The UEC has authority to postpone or cancel elections in constituencies, and transfer polling booths in secure places in which free and fair elections could not be held due to a natural disaster or a situation of regional security.

Yet, the key concerns of the Union Election Commission are the lack of independence and impartiality of the Union Election Commission (UEC), both at the national and local levels because the members of the UEC are appointed by the president from the majority party itself. It raises the concerns of electoral biases towards the incumbent parties. In June 2015, a former army general and member of parliament from the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) stepped down immediately to take the position of UEC chairman for the year general election, and expressed views demonstrating a lack of impartiality. Then, he used the same rhetoric that is to say- conducting elections in a disciplined democracy style, closely associated with past Burmese military governments and incumbent parties while promising that the 2015 elections would be free and fair. The steps taken by the UEC thus far reflect a consistent favoritism to the regime that appointed it.

Moreover, there are concerns of UEC’s restriction of election campaigns and transparency in solving electoral complaints too. For example, Under the rules announced by the UEC, a political party must apply to the election commission for permission to present a campaign broadcast and submit a script for the proposed broadcast for review. It allows political parties to publish materials only if they paid a deposit and pledged not to oppose the regime or insult or sow dissent in the military according to the 2008 Constitution. Another UEC directive required parties to seek advance permission  from the local commission for any gathering and to provide details on the time and place and the names and identifying information on speakers. The election procedures also lack appropriate mechanisms for resolving complaints. Complaints will be brought before tribunals set up under the UEC, with a panel of three arbiters composed of election commissioners. But in violation of international norms, complainants can only appeal a tribunal’s final decision to the UEC, whose ruling is final and made without judicial oversight. There is no possibility to appeal a UEC decision. The UEC seems reluctant to solve allegations of the misuse of religion during the campaign. There were at least four such official complaints in 2015 but no response was given by the UEC. The UEC needs a strong and effective mechanism, and the complaints-resolution process in a transparent manner in order to reduce electoral violence.

Nonetheless, the voter lists prepared by UEC always contained substantial errors, since the election in 2010 that marked the beginning of democratic transition, largely attributable to inaccuracies in the underlying data sources. It also excludes certain community members of religious orders, those serving prison sentences, those who have not been cleared from bankruptcy, and those who have assumed a foreign descent instead of ensuring all the citizens the right to vote. So, it is like the UEC itself institutionalized electoral violence as it remains unsuccessful to prepare accurate and inclusive voter lists which are essential for holding a credible election because it ensures that citizens do not lose their right to vote and that the ballot reflects the popular will.

Elections Before 2010 in Myanmar

Free and Fair elections can be considered as a primary root of democracy and a basic human right.[3].Generally, free and fair elections should include a clear legal structure, an independent election commission, freedom of right to vote, elections held at regular intervals, freedom of candidature and campaigning, universal, free, equal, and secret suffrage, right to monitor the elections.[4]

To analyze the historical background and role of elections, there can be roughly divided into four categories: British Colonial Era (1922-1947), Post- Independence Period (1948-1962), Burma Socialist Program Party Era (1962-1988), The Era of Multi-Party Democracy (1989-Present). During the era of the British Colonial Era, Myanmar held six elections and some Burmese political parties boycotted the elections under the British rules. For the second category, Myanmar held three multi-party national elections from June 1951 to February 1952, 1956, and 1960. In 1962, the military seized power and a revolutionary council headed by Nay Win administrated the country. The period between 1960 and 1990, the military banned all political parties and tried to set up a one-party nation in 1974 under the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) driven by General Nay Win. But after 25 years of the “Burmese Way to Socialism”, Myanmar became one of the at least developing countries, and mismanagement of Nay Win’ government in handling the problems such as demonetization of the money without warning or compensations and Maung Phone Maw[5] case were the major roots of the 1988 uprising. To handle these political instabilities, the military abolished the 1974 constitution, ruled as State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), and promised to hold a general election shortly.  In the 1990 election, the NLD party led by Aung San Suu Kyi won 392 of 492 seats, but the military caretaker government annulled an overwhelming victory and took the power until the 2010 election. Ignoring the election’s results can be seen as another form of electoral violence..

Electoral Violence, Election Commission and 2010 Election

On 2010, November 7, the first elections were held under the military government, and USDA (The Union Solidarity and Development Association) was remodeled to USDP (The Union Solidarity and Development Party) to take part in the 2010 elections.  On the other hand, the winner of the 1990 elections, the NLD party steered by Aung San Su Kyi decided to boycott the 2010 election because the 2008 constitution and unjust electoral law were enacted by Myanmar military junta and disregarded the democracy and human rights in Myanmar. In facts, 2010 elections were the alternative plan of military government to retain his power to dominate the country again.

On March 9, 2010, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) released the five new laws, the Union Election Commission Law, the Political Party Registration Law, the Pyithu Hluttaw(House of Representative) Electoral Laws , the  Amyotha Hluttaw(House of Nationalities) Electoral Law, the Region, and State Assemblies Law  to hold the parliamentary elections in  November,2010  and, as a result of these laws, the electoral commission became the most responsible independent organization to supervise the election and political parties. Nevertheless, the SPCD announced the 17 members of the election commission and most of them were retired government officials and served under the administration of military junta. Thein Soe, the former general was also appointed to be a chairman of UEC, and the transparency, accountability, and supervision of election commission in the 2010 election was wholly lack of dependency and failed to meet any international standard for a free and fair elections process.

            These failures of UEC resulted in many people scared to support the opposite parties of USDP and “the resulting atmosphere of fear and intimidation was one of their most important tools to manipulate the election and ensure that the outcome was in their favor”. [7] In fact, some specific decisions of UEC were major tools of SPDC to influence the election and to control the electoral campaign. For example, UEC refused five Kachin ethnic minority parties to participate in the 2010 election. [8]. Article 7(c) of the Political Parties Registration Law restricted the direct or indirect use of state-owned resources including money, land, house building, vehicle, and other state property for campaign activities.[9] However, reports indicate that USDP mis-used state-own funds and offered targeted government construction programs, provisions of cheat loans to villages and other incentives to voters and UEC allowed the USDP to violate the electoral laws .

Declaration on Criteria for Free and Fair Election stated that “Every individual and every political party has the right to the protection of the law and to a remedy for violation of political and electoral rights”[10]. In the Rakhine State of Myanmar, the National Democratic Party for Development (NDPD) was one of two ethnic Rohingya parties and its electoral campaigns and activities was obstructed because of the intimidation by the USDP members that Rohingya villages would be dismantled if the party continued to rally for votes.[11]This phenomenon can be seen as a psychological electoral violence and USDP members used their existing power to influence the period of pre-elections and violated the legal framework .

As a negative consequence of lacking control and bias of UEC, voters could not choose their desired candidates and were threatened and were not able to express their opinions. USDP also forced the teachers, government staff to vote for the candidates of USDP. Regime officials pressured civil servants to vote the USDP and gathered the information of these staffs including ballot numbers, identification cards numbers, addresses to ensure their compliance.

The election laws state that “the respective Township Sub-commission shall arrange for the defense services personnel, students, trainees, detainees, in-patients at the hospitals and persons on duty who are away from the respective constituency to enable them to vote with advance ballot paper for their respective constituency.” Consequently, USDP used advance voting as a tool for ballot rigging and manipulating the voting results. In some areas, EC and SPDC staffs went from door-to-door to collect the advance votes and they forced the voters to vote USDP party.[12]

The role of media, national, and international observers play a crucial role in the electoral process. The right to access sufficient information, the right to observe the elections are the basic rights of voters and it can support to promote a free and fair election process. In the 2010 election,

The military government declined to enter the foreign journalists and election observers to the state and UEC also barred the international observers and journalists from monitoring the elections. The ministry of information announced a statement that all individuals associated the media were not allowed to enter within the 50 meters of polling stations.[13]These irregularities can be seen as a sub-type of electoral fraud that manipulate the outcome of the elections   .

2015 Myanmar Election, UEC and Electoral Violence

On November 8, Myanmar held the general election under the 2008 constitution and these elections were a major achievement of Myanmar political transition from a military-dominated government. In these elections, NLD that boycotted the election in 2010 trounced the military-backed USDP with almost 80 percent of the elected seats. Although the 2015 election produced a landslide victory for the NLD party, 25 percent of seats in the parliament are reserved for military representatives nominated by Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces based on the 2008 constitution. The military junta intentionally manipulated his power to influence the outcome of elections and control the government under the 2008 constitution. Generally, the 2015 elections were widely regarded as more peaceful and credible than previous elections but some irregularity and problems were still raised including the right of minorities in the voting matter, taking the 25 percent of unelected seats by the military, and using Buddhist nationalist narratives for party-political ends and so on. The problems were the major root of lacking independence and impartiality of UEC. Also, the members of UEC should not be affiliated to any political parties, but U Tin Aye, a former parliament member of USDP became the chairman of UEC and it is difficult to express UEC as an independent organization that governed the elections in 2015.  

Myanmar has been plagued long-lasting conflicts between ethnic’s groups and the Burmese army. As a result, it is difficult to hold the elections in some areas with insecure and conflicted-affected areas and ethics armed groups occasionally used threats or violence to influence the pre-period of elections and the outcome of elections as well. In 2015, the NLD party could not run his campaign in Pao self-administrated zone because of the threats of the Pao National Organization.[14]

Union Solidarity and Development Party used such kind  of strategy that harmed voting behavoiursbehaviors of people in the elections. USDP stimulated people to see the positions of itself as the defenders of Buddhism and Burma nationalism, and also affiliated with the Patriotic Association of Myanmar, abbreviated Ma Ba Tha in Burmese to accuse NDL as a supporter of non-Buddhism[15]. Furthermore, the four “protection of race and religion’ laws were enacted by Ma Ba Tha in May and August 2015 with the support of USDP, and Ma Ba Tha launched campaigns that encourage the anti-muslim by delivering their-own created fakes news and forced “Burmese voters not to vote Muslim party’ NLD”. This was a way of using religion as a mean of unfair political purpose and it significantly decreased the voting percentage of Buddhism voters who support NLD. For example, Meiktila is the central city of Myanmar and over 80 percent of people in there are Buddhism. In 2015, USDP party won all four seats because Meikhtila was a major city of 2013 Myanmar anti-muslim riots and religious related disinformation of USDP party had big impact on the voting choice of Buddhism people in there. According to the Article 58(C) of the Pyithu Hluttaw (House of Representative) Electoral Laws, the Amyotha Hluttaw (House of Nationalities) Electoral Law and the Region, and State Assemblies Law prohibited that “uttering, making speeches, making declarations and instigating to vote or not to vote on grounds of race and religion or by abetment of such acts”. Nevertheless, USDP tried to misuse of religion for electoral purpose and UEC also failed to take action on the violation.

Article (21), Section (A) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) states that “Everyone has the right to take part in the government of his country, directly or through freely chosen representatives and  the article (25), Section (B) of International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (1976) also states that “To vote and to be elected at genuine periodic elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret ballot, guaranteeing the free expression of the will of the electors” . So, the right to be elected in the elections are the major rights of every citizen and barring the candidate to take part in the elections can be considered as one of the major violations of electoral and human rights. In September 2015, UEC announced that 124 candidates were rejected to take part in the elections based on their citizenship status. [16] One third of the rejected candidates were Muslim candidates from Rakhine states including several candidates who had participated in previous elections without serious problems.[17] There is a need to protect every fundamental right of every citizen and UEC should also be a fair and independent organization that can protect the rights of residents.

2020 General Election and Challenges

The general election of Myanmar’s 2020 election would a challenge for the country’s effort to hold a free and fair. But the outcome is very much predictable. There will be significant election violence or ballot fraud. Overall, the election process will almost certainly fall far short of democratic standards. The Union Election Commission (UEC) has restricted independent elections monitoring and observation process, though they were allowed in 2015 election. This act already raises concerns for the transparency and credibility of election because it fits in the conceptualization of electoral violence. The 2020 electoral process is poised to be similar religious nationalism as previous election. In addition to all these challenges, the country is among the first in Southeast Asia to organize elections under the conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic that put the country into new risks and challenges.

Civil society organizations, such as played an essential role in monitoring electoral violence during the last two general elections in Myanmar, particularly in 2015 general elections. But the UEC imposed restriction on observing polls set for November, raising questions about the transparency and credibility of the election. The People’s Alliance for Credible Elections (PACE), a major independent group of election monitors in the country, had denied to observe 2020 general election on the basis that it had received foreign funding by the UEC. After considered criticism and pressure from international and local communities, the organization is finally allowed to monitor and observe 2020 general election. Yet, there will a wide range of electoral fraud such as vote rigging and buying as the independent observation and monitoring still is limited due to Covid-19 health measurements leading many international observers shut out of the country.

Moreover, the outbreak of Covid-19 compounds already existing weaknesses and disproportionate the electoral process. Political parties are barred to rally and campaign in open places and buildings and conduct door-to-door campaigning where a stay-at-home order is imposed. But the rules make disproportionate impact on political parties and voters. NLD, the incumbent party, has been the most beneficial in this health crisis. The party popularity boosted as it enjoys nearly exclusive visibility as a respondent. In addition, the UEC also seem in favor of the National League for Democracy (NLD). The party is driven by its chairwoman Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, that has started its campaign on a wide scale. In some places, due to strong public support, attendees at NLD’s rallies exceeded the limits. Furthermore, the USDP and 23 otherotherss parties have asked the UEC to postpone polls citing the impact of health measures on campaign activities. But the UEC has sided with the decision of incumbent party to hold polls as planned. It also censors opposition parties campaign speeches that is critical of the government in power and its policies preventing to present their policies in full.

So, both the UEC and NLD party has become the main target of violence confrontation. The Union UEC received bomb threat and NLD supporters were attack after the commission rejected calls from opposition parties to postpone polling day. Police and bomb disposal experts removed two grenades that appear to have been lobbed from the street to intimidate election officials into the Dekkina Thiri township compound of the city’s sub-commission chair, Thein Htwe. At the same time, there were clashes between Campaigners from the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and National League for Democracy (NLD) supporters. At least six USDP campaigners were arrested for pelting rocks NLD’s supporter’s home with rocks in Meiktila under charges of committing obscene acts and intentionally causing hurt. The USDP supporters also file the case in return counterclaiming that it was NLD supporter that disrupted and injured the campaigners when they came to the village. However, the UEC said that it will get involved only if it is get worsen, now it’s up to the police. Tthe UK-based Burma Human Rights Network already warned that the opportunity for violence in these areas is high in a statement. Days after, the family of the NLD’s township-level executive committee leader, Kanni village, Myaing township of Magwe region, escaped death after about 100 people their house after they started playing NLD victory song. The mob destroyed their house, car and motorcycles among other properties. The mob also threw stones at two vehicles from police force and General Administration Department used to protect the family. The police charged thirty-two attackers under the protection of public property act.

The Ethnic and religious nationalism also can grip with the effects of ‘hate speech’, misinformation, and disinformation particularly against Muslim community in the context of elections. the USDP has repeatedly attacked the nationalist credentials of Aung San Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) in an effort to appeal to voters. The USDP has used such tactics successfully in the past. In 2013, violence between Buddhists and Muslims near Mandalay helped the USDP reclaim a seat from the NLD in 2015 elections. The USDP appears intent to play the nationalism card again in order to steal support from the NLD. Even before NLD released its candidates list for the election, there has been a number of fake news circulating that the will field more than 50 percent of the Muslim candidates. However, two Muslims have been added to the list of NLD candidates in the upcoming 2020 election. Then, those two most Muslim candidates have become the main target of the fake news which is mainly spread by Tatmadaw and USDP supporters. There is also widespread anti-Rohingya sentiment running by political parties seeking to politicized about 720000 refugees return from Bangladesh on the underlying historical and communal conflicts that led to the violence in the first place. According to a report released by Loka Ahlin, it is USDP and the National Progressive Party (NDP), in terms of the political parties, that spread the most racial and religious profiling posts on social media. So, the constituencies, such as Pabedan in Yangon and Miektila in Mandaly, where Muslim cadidates will compete is more likely prone to physical violence or intimidation of individuals, with the others consisting of the destruction of election materials or infrastructure.

In order to prevent electoral violence, the state needs an effective and clarified mechanisms to solve electoral disputes to timely serve justice in the occurrence of electoral violence. The framework of electoral disputes needs to guarantee complainants an effective and timely remedy for violations of people’s rights. In addition, the election laws need to establish a clear process for the resolution of electoral disputes, which falls under the UEC’s authority. Indeed, the current legal framework on elections seems to be designed to discourage complaints. The framework also should clearly distinguish between criminal offenses and those that the UEC can address. Then, many matters that could have been addressed and remedied by the UEC won’t be instead reported to the police unlike the current situation.


[1]

 Understanding Electoral Violence in Asia, United Nation Development Programme , Asia- Pacific Regional Center .

[2]USAID. “Best Practices in Electoral Security: A Guide for Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance Programming.” January 2013. Accessed at http://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2496/Electoral_Security_Best_Practices_USAID.pdf

[3] The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, Guidelines for Reviewing a Legal Framework for Elections, 10 (2001).

[4] The Public International Law & Policy Group, the 2010 Burmese elections: Neither free nor fair.

[5] In March 1988, Maung Phone Maw, Student of Rangoon Institute of Technology (RIT), was gunned down by the police the day after a clash between the RITs’ students and people in Gyo Kone, Insein.

[6] Youth Agency and Peacebuilding: an analysis of the role of formal and non-formal education. Synthesis report on findings from Myanmar, Pakistan, South Africa and Uganda by: Mieke T.A. Lopes Cardozo, Sean Higgins, Marielle L.J. Le Mat available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317718190_Youth_Agency_and_Peacebuilding_an_analysis_of_the_role_of_formal_and_non-formal_education_Synthesis_report_on_findings_from_Myanmar_Pakistan_South_Africa_and_Uganda

[7] Burma election 2010: An election general, published by the Thai Action Committee for Democracy in Burma.

[8] Burma’s 2010 Election Campaign: Issue for Congress by Michael F.Martin ,Specialist in Asian Affairs ,October 6 2020.

[9] Political Parties Registration Law art. 7(c) (Burma, 2010), available at https://www.mlis.gov.mm/mLsView.do?lawordSn=1408.

[10] Inter-Parliamentary Union, Declaration on Criteria for Free and Fair Elections, art. 3.9-3.11(Mar. 26, 1994).

[11] Q&A on elections in Burma by  Human Right Watch , https://www.hrw.org/news/2010/11/03/qa-elections-burma#_Have_parties_faced.

[12] Observation report ,2010 Myanmar General Elections, Learning and Sharing for Future, by Center for peace and conflict studies available at https://www.centrepeaceconflictstudies.org/wp-content/uploads/2010-Myanmar-Observer-report.pdf

[13] Myanmar to Keep Close Watch on Media Before Poll, REUTERS (Oct. 31, 2010), available at

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52570220101031.

[14] For background, see “NLD members threatened at gunpoint to resign in east Burma”, The Irrawaddy,23 May 2013. The Pao National Organization is both an armed group with a ceasefire as well as a political party (which the group also registered as).

[15] Ostwald, K., & Schuler, P. (2015). Myanmar’s Landmark Election: Unresolved Questions. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

[16] Myanmar Election: The ‘Real Burmese ‘Dilemma by Courtney Weatherby, The Diplomat, available at https://thediplomat.com/2015/10/myanmars-election-the-real-burmese-dilemma/

[17] Burma: Election Fundamentally Flawed, Key Elements of Electoral Process Structurally Unfair, Discriminatory, Human Right Watch, available at https://www.hrw.org/news/2015/11/04/burma-election-fundamentally-flawed

The Culprit of the Economic Downturn in Myanmar

During these years, Myanmar possessed decent conditions for economic development with a moderate level of political and economic reform. A month before the 2020 Myanmar election, the World Bank predicted that the Myanmar economy would increase and recover by 5.9 percent. But, all of these opportunities were wasted by the coup attempt by military leader General Min Aung Hlaing. The World Bank forecasts that the economy of Myanmar is expected to contract by 18 percent in the 2021 fiscal year (Oct 2020–November 2021)[1]. On February 1, the Myanmar Military detained the country’s de facto leader, Aung San Su Kyi, President Win Myint and other senior politicians proclaimed it had taken control of the whole country as a reason for the unfair and ambiguous election result of the ruling NLD government in 2020 election and has declared power had been handed to General Min Aung Hlaing, the commander in chief of the Myanmar army according to the 2008 constitution. Beginning with the period of the military taking power, increasing nationwide protests after a military coup, massive participation in civil disobedience moments, boycotting the military businesses, implementation of sanctions, and illegal crackdowns on the pro-democracy protesters had huge impacts on the businesses and operation system of the Myanmar economy.

A military coup has a huge effect on its economic structure and it can decrease GDP as a result of negative effects on regulatory institutions. Fosu(1992) argued that political instabilities diminish the efficiency of the production process and have an enormously negative effect on the growth of GDP[2]. However, a new military government will set its own rules and policies that can favor the politically weighty elite including their welfare. It can have disastrous long-term economic impacts and political instabilities also weaken the economic development of a country. Furthermore, some statistical analyses also indicate that military interventions deteriorate the economic development of a country and a limited correction between the economic cycle and a military coup for Latin America[3].

Does the Civil Disobedience Movement work?

At the beginning of the anti-coup moments in Myanmar, civil disobedience moments played a major role in disrupting the governing system of the military government, and it was the most basic and effective response of citizens to widen public concern through the adverse reaction that it provoked. Since the coup, a broad range of professionals, including doctors, teachers, bankers, lawyers, engineers, civil servants, and other professional workers, have joined the CDM movement, calling for an end to military dictatorship and refusing to return their work. The profound effect of the moments has weakened the governing system, military-related businesses, and banks, and has also had negative consequences on the current businesses in Myanmar.

Four months after the coup, the banking crisis became a major challenging factor for the military government, and it also had a big impact on the country’s economic activities. The anti-coup moment resulted in the disruption of banking services, and bankers were absent from doing their jobs for nearly four months. As a result, the banks were not able to operate their procedures, and international trade has also been adversely affected. People have also boycotted the military-owned Myawaddy bank, and they tried to take out their money to avoid uncertainties and rumors of money shortage problems. Additionally, rumors spread that a banking collapse had been floating since February, and the situation was getting worse after the government shut down the internet to prevent the information flow of protests. Many people tried to withdraw their cash at the bank, and the cash shortage problem became a major problem for banks. Moreover, banks set rules to reduce withdrawals and provide daily limits for their customers. People and even the companies needed to wait in a long queue to get their required amount of cash, and it was difficult to operate financial activities. On the other hand, most of the banks and non-CDM bankers were still working to provide services for military-related businesses and their partner businesses, and it is hard to estimate the success rate of bankers’ CDM moments. As a result, it is also difficult to figure out who suffers the negative consequences of bankers’ CDM moments, the military government, or the public.

Later, to prevent the banking crises and instabilities, the government has forced the banks to operate their whole activities but it is still hard to return to the situation. In the long run, it is possible that the government will set new policies that can reveal financial difficulties and it will also be overweight for their own benefit.

Covid-19 or the final weapon to kill the country’s economy

Six months after the military coup, over 90 percent of the country was affected by the third wave of COVID-19 in Myanmar. The deficiency of effective government policy to counteract the third wave covid-19 can be considered as the key reason for spreading the virus across the country. On July 26, the Ministry of Health and Sport, now under the control of the State Administration Council (SAC) junta, reported that there were a total of 269,525 patients, 185,402 recovered patients and 71111 confirmed deaths but this was only the data of patients who went to the hospitals and there were numerous unofficial patients and deaths. As an effect of increasing oxygen shortage problems and lack the health support for COVID-19 patients, it is very difficult to control the disease. Furthermore, although the Ministry of Health and Sports announced a 14-day holiday to prevent the disease effectively, the cases are still increasing rapidly.

Consequently, most of the businesses are closed, and it is hard to run the businesses during the pandemic. The level of the unemployment rate is increasing and Word Bank reported that around 1 million jobs could be lost [4].Most of them are working in informal sectors such as construction, garment factories, and SME businesses. Other businesses such as travel and tours companies and online related industries were facing obstacles since the February coup. Therefore, it can be considered that the whole economy was deteriorated not only by the coup but also by the harmful results of covid-19.As the impacts of pre-existing poverty, the covid-19 pandemic, and the current political instability in Myanmar, the World Food Program (WFP) estimates up to 3.5 million people will be hungry and mostly those in urban areas[5]. The report of UNDP also estimates that the negative effects of Covid-19 and the ongoing coup d’état could push up to 12 million people into poverty and 25million people of the total population could be below the national poverty line by early 2022[6].

General Min Aung Hlaing or the culprit of the problems

In fact, Myanmar had a decent condition in the economic and political reform process before the coup although the previous NLD government had some weaknesses. After the military coup, Myanmar was returned to the way of authoritarian rule. The military has interrupted the economic activities of the country and it can also decrease economic freedom. So, it is inevitable that the military government will not decrease its power and authority in the transition process of the market economy.

In the long them, there is a need to provide effective policies and plans that can improve the country’s economic development and political reform process as well. If not, the overall status of the country will decrease rapidly. Additionally, political stability also plays a crucial role in the implementation of the economic reform process. Thus, ending the military dictatorship might be the ultimate solution to end all of the difficulties and to form a federal country with rapid economic development.

[1] The Myanmar Economic Monitor (MEM), progress threatened; resilience tested July 2021 by World Bank Group.

https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/525471627057268984/pdf/Myanmar-Economic-Monitor-July-2021.pdf

[2] Fosu, A. K. (1992). Political Instability and Economic Growth:Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 829–841.

[3] Welch, C. E. (2008). Long term consequences of military rule:Breakdown and extrication. Journal of Strategic Studies.

[4] The Myanmar Economic Monitor (MEM), progress threatened; resilience tested July 2021 by World Bank Group.

https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/525471627057268984/pdf/Myanmar-Economic-Monitor-July-2021.pdf

[5] WFP to step up operations in response to fast rising hunger in Myanmar, 22 April 2021, World Food Program.

https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp- step-operations-response-fast-rising-hunger-myanmar,

[6] Covid-19 Coup D’etat and Poverty, compounding negative shocks and their impact on human development in Myanmar, April 2021, United Nations Development Program (UNDP)

The Coup’s Devastating Effects on Myanmar’s Higher Education

Introduction

Education contributes significantly to a country’s socioeconomic development, and rapid expansions of educational opportunities can actively foster the development of third-world countries. Over the period of more than 50 years of military control, Myanmar’s education system became extremely centralized, with a loss of academic independence, limits on engaging in political activities, and several other barriers to receiving a decent education. Myanmar’s education sector had some growth potential during the NLD government’s rule, and it was also included in the government’s reform scheme. Significantly, amending the national education law and policy, reforming the entire education system, and integrating MOUs with international universities and institutions to support Myanmar education are the most significant modifications and advancements in the higher education sector; however, it appeared that some limitations on decision making as a result of the “command and control” system, and forming student unions, academic freedom, and freedom of speech have turned into an important drawback of higher education. However, General Min Aung Hlaing’s coup attempts ruined this opportunity for advancement in higher education, and the post-coup period is one of the most disastrous periods in Myanmar’s higher education.

The Emergence of Interim Education Councils

During the coup period, at least 90% of university teachers and students participated in the Civil Disobedience Moment (CDM) and did not attend classes in opposition to the military’s coup attempt, even though students’ education was halted for nearly six months due to the COVID-19 pandemic. So, with this turmoil in politics, there was no option of pursuing an official university education. A few months after the coup, various interim councils and organizations began assisting university students’ learning processes with the help of CDM teachers, researchers from both international and local universities, and the NUG government.

In Myanmar’s higher education sectors after the coup, two public education actors emerged: SAC-controlled education and interim education. Under the SAC-controlled education system, it has continued to open universities and colleges with the support of Non-CDMers and newly hired teachers. Myanmar Nway-Oo University was created in October 2020 for the category of interim education by collaborating with universities’ interim councils across the country. In the aftermath of the coup, independent universities, institutes, and organizations such as Spring University Myanmar, Federal Law School, and Burma Academy were established to provide financial and educational support for CDM teachers and students.

National Unity Government’s Higher Education

NUG’s Ministry of Education was founded in April 2021 to assist boycotted students in continuing their education via online. Myanmar Nway Oo University (MONU), as a main body of NUG, has been supplying three major categories:

(1) Formal Courses

(2) Core Curriculum Course and

(3) Short Courses

It has been providing classes related to going forward formal university education under the label of formal courses, which additionally offers opportunities for both day and distance education. Core curriculum courses are introductory courses that allow students who passed the matriculation exam after the coup and refused to join the military’s education to reflect their level of interest in several subjects before enrolling in a university. The short courses are intended to assist CDMers and the public in broadening their knowledge in specific themes and sectors.

MNOU used Moodle as a learning platform to reduce safety concerns and to make use of that platform as an accessible and flexible platform for learners, as well as featuring an effective interactive system. However, since it is an online platform, it is inaccessible to learners who are in places with lacking internet and cannot afford to buy electronic gadgets. As MNOU is an online-based university, it could mitigate some potential risks and improve the privacy of beneficiaries and staff members, but there are also unresolved constraints such as limitations on deliverable subjects, limited student numbers, and the challenges of online learning. In fact, The NUG’s higher education system is still in its nascent stages and requires tremendous development and changes to provide sufficient educational opportunities and equal changes for those who believe in NUG’s education.

Unresolved Issues in Myanmar Interim Education After the Coup

Despite the fact that the NUG administration has been implementing its higher education plan through interim education providers in order to provide needed education to everyone who is unwilling to continue SAC’s education scheme, there are numerous obstacles that remain to be resolved.

The most difficult trigger for both education providers and students pursuing interim education is a lack of accreditation by international universities or institutes. As a result, even if students accomplish the interim education provided by these providers, it is extremely difficult for them to proceed with their university studies. There are certain collaborations and memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with international universities to deliver quality education online; most of them have just agreed to provide educational support and materials. Thus, it is still challenging to earn a certificate, diploma, or degree from an endorsed foreign university, while a few interim organizations have provided certain accredited certificates after completing their courses. To enroll in a program at a foreign university, students must first pass the GED exam. As a direct consequence of the high cost of the GED exam and tuition costs, students from middle- and lower-income households are still losing opportunities for higher education.

Furthermore, since most interim education providers were formed by CDMers, student union officials, and activists, security considerations have been a top priority for all of them. As a result, all members used pseudonyms and interacted using reliable communication channels. Conversely, the military has been detaining these teachers to maintain its so-called “high-quality education” system. On July 20, 2022, the founder and two other members of the Kaung For You federal private school were detained in Aung Ban, Southern Shan State, and approximately 20 additional members of the organization were imprisoned. In addition, the founder of Aung Myay Thar Zan Federal School and 14 other members have been jailed for unlawfully conducting lectures and supporting NUG’s education system, and the risk level for those implementing interim education has skyrocketed. Therefore, in order to lessen the likelihood of potential risks, neither students nor teachers were permitted to use real-time video in the context of online instruction, and the question of how best to maximize student’s capacity for learning by means of online mediums remains unanswered.

Students who live in areas with limited or no access to the internet are still unable to pursue their education as an immediate outcome of the implementation of interim education using online. The military government’s decision to increase the internet charge and require a decant of modernized electronic devices to access an online educational platform are also significant obstacles to those who want to improve their education. As a shadow government, NUG is attempting to address these issues. But It is still unable to coordinate the current interim education providers to give the necessary education to students who have invested in their education for this revolution.

ရန်ကုန်သာ ပြန်နိုးလာခဲ့ရင်

အပြင်မထွက်တာကြာလာတဲ့အခါ ရန်ကုန်ကို အမြန်နေကောင်းစေချင်တဲ့ စိတ်တွေပိုလာတယ်။ ရန်ကုန်ဟာ ဒဏ်ရာ ဒဏ်ချက်တွေနဲ့ သေကောင်းပေါင်းလဲ ပက်လက်မြောနေပြီ။ ရန်ကုန်ဟာရန်ကုန်ဖြစ်လ်ို့တော်သေးတာပေါ့။ဟုတ်ပါတယ်။မကြာဘူး သိပ်မကြာခင်ပဲ ရန်ကုန်ဟာ ရန်ကုန်အဖြစ်နဲ့ပဲ သူ့လက်ကိုသူတွဲရင်း ခပ်ဖြည်းဖြည်းထလာလိမ့်မယ် ။ ဖိုက်တင်းပါ ရန်ကုန်။

ရန်ကုန်သာ ပြန်နလန်ထူခဲ့ရင် အရင်ဆုံးသွားချင်တာ လှည်းတန်းပဲ။ လှည်းတန်းဟာ ရန်ကုန်ရဲ့နှလုံးသားပဲ ဖြစ်လိမ့်မယ်။ လှည်းတန်းကို ချစ်တယ်။ လူတအားရှူပ်လို့ မသွားချင်ဘူးလို့ အကြိမ်ကြိမ်ငြင်းခဲ့တဲ့ ဦးထွန်းလင်းခြံ လမ်းကို ပြန်သွားမယ်။ “ရွှေ” မှာ လက်ဖက်ရည်တစ်ခွက်သောက်တဲ့ မနက်ခင်း တစ်ခုပြန်ဖန်တီးမယ်။အင်းဝ စာအုပ်တိုက်ထဲမှာ မဝယ်ဘဲ ချချခဲ့တဲ့ စာအုပ်တွေ ပြန်သွားဝယ်ဖို့ စိတ်ကူးထားတယ်။ သစ်သီးဖျော်ရည်သောက်မယ်။အရင်ဝယ်စားနေကျလမ်းဘေးဆိုင်လေးမှာပဲ မုန့်လေးဘာလေးဝင်စားဦးမယ်။

နည်းနည်းပင်ပန်းလားရင် အအေးဓာတ်ရတဲ့ လှည်းတန်းစင်တာထဲဝင်မွှေမယ် ။ အပေါ့အပါးလေးဘာလေး သွားမယ်။ အမြဲတမ်းမွှေးနေတဲ့ ဆုကော်ဖီဆိုင်လေးက ထွက်တဲ့ ကော်ဖီနံ့လေးတွေ ရှူရင်း စိန်ဂေဟာဘက် ခြေဦးလှည့်မယ် ။ စားနေကျဆိုင်မှာပဲ ဆူရှီစားမယ်။ အခုလောလောဆယ်တော့ အိမ်မက်လို့ပဲ တွေးထားတယ်။ အိမ်မက်လေး လည်း ရန်ကုန်နဲ့ တူတူနိုးထလာပါစေ။ ဒါတင်မကဘူး ရန်ကုန်တက္ကသိုလ်၊ မဝေကန်တင်း၊ Burma Cafe ၊စီးပွါးရေး တက္ကသိုလ်၊ အင်းလျား ၊ပြီးတော့ …. အခုလောလော ဆယ်မှာ အတွေးတွေပဲ ဖြစ်နေတုန်းပဲ။

ထပ်ပြောရရင် လှည်းတန်းစင်တာဘက်ကနေ စံရိပ်ငြိမ်ထိ လမ်းလျှောက်ရတာကို အရင်ကတည်းကကြိုက်တယ်။ ရန်ကုန်ပြန်သက်သာလာရင် လမ်းတော့ သေချာလျှောက်ဖြစ်မယ်။ Ice Berry, KFC ကနေ လမ်းဘေးမုန့်ဆိုင်လေးတွေ အထိ ကျပျောက်ခဲ့တဲ့ ကိုယ့်ခြေရာတွေတစ်ခုချင်းစီ ပြန်ကောက်မယ်။ ကောက်မယ်လို့သာပြောတာရယ် အဲ့အချိန်တွေ ဘယ်တော့မှ ပြန်ရောက် ရောက်ပါ့မလဲ။

မောင်ငြိမ်းဇေ

Zeyar Hein Htet

Zeyar is a Myanmar-born researcher and educator. He has many years of experience in the education and development sector, including research, advocacy, and project management. Zeyar also served as the focal person for the Myanmar Democracy Research Network and as a supervisor for the Asia Barometer Survey, which aims to gauge public opinion across Asia on issues such as political values, democracy, and government. He is now working as a researcher at the Yangon School of Political Science, where he conducts various studies to promote democratic values and culture in Myanmar. He has also enthusiastically participated in a variety of educational projects and activities.